The year 2000 edition of the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) and the International Shipping Federation (ISF) study of manning and manpower requirements for the world's fleet of merchant ships has just been published.
This is a document which those concerned with Chinese shipping should consider. Of course, the BIMCO-ISF study is concerned with all the ships in the world. While the figures in the report include China and Chinese ships, the main part of the study relates to the ships of other countries.
Some of the conclusions in the report, however, are relevant to the future of manning aboard Chinese ships.
This is the third edition of this report. It is published every five years. In very broad terms, the 1990 report predicted a shortage of ships officers and an oversupply of ratings. The 1995 report showed that the collapse of the shipowning industries of the former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries had released onto the international market for seafaring labour enough experienced officers to fill this gap. The oversupply of ratings had continued.
The 2000 update of the report shows that the shortage of officers is getting worse. The report estimates that the total number of seamen required by the world deep sea fleet (excluding coastal shipping) is 420,000 officers and 599,000 ratings. However, the report calculates that at present the supply of staff to the world deep sea fleet is 404,000 officers and 820,000 ratings.
Therefore, while there is an excess of 224,000 ratings, or + 27%, the shortage of officers today amounts to 16,000 officers, or - 4%. Within this total, there are some alarming trends. The report comments that the majority of Asian junior officers aboard international ships are unwilling to take senior posts, such as Master or Chief Engineer. Furthermore Asian officers tend to retire from the sea and take shore positions at quite a young age. The money invested in their training is therefore wasted.
Meanwhile, there is a worrying trend in relation to senior officers, holding the positions of Master and Chief Engineer, from the OECD countries More than 40% of such officers are over 50 years old, while 18% are older than 55, and are due to retire within the next five years.
Since the seafaring training system of Russia is no longer reliable, there will be no further supply of ships' officers from that source. Similarly, the supply of ship's officers from Yugoslavia is doubtful, while Poland is producing fewer seafarers in any case, as that country's economic situation is rapidly improving.
By 2010, according to the report, the world shipping industry will be 46,000 officers short of the required number. In calculating this figure, the study assumes that manning levels on board ships will not be reduced much below present levels, due to problems with fatigue. Furthermore, the report notes that the STCW Convention and the ISM Code will both have the effect of limiting the reduction of crew numbers and of reducing seafarer supply.
So, what are the prospects for the Chinese officer cadet, or junior officer, today?
If you are an officer cadet, or a serving junior officer, and you are reading this, you may reflect happily on your very sensible choice of career! Because, if you are reading this, then your English is good, which means that the possibility of serving on international ships is available to you, and you will have noticed the impending shortage, which means that salaries for capable ships' officers will be obeying the law of supply and demand - and increasing!
Since it takes, on average, ten years, from recruiting a cadet to that same cadet taking senior rank on board, if you are a cadet and you are reading this you will not be facing competition from excess trained officers which would push your wages down again. You certainly are not at all likely to be out of work!
In general, industry experts to whom I have spoken have been very favourably impressed by the quality of young Chinese ships' officers and cadets today. China is probably the only country which may not need to deal with a "manning problem" in the next ten to twenty years. We cannot be certain of this. It is possible that Chinese officers, like other Asian officers, (except Japanese) will wish to spend only a few years at sea before taking a shore position. In that case, there would be a problem.
And for Chinese shipping companies there is what might appear to be a problem - wages. If there is a world shortage of seafarers, particularly a shortage of capable young officers, then wages for these positions will increase throughout the world fleet. This would have the effect of encouraging Chinese officers to serve on foreign ships, at higher wages. In that case Chinese shipping companies must plan to improve their own service conditions for officers, including salaries, if they are not to lose good people to foreign companies.
Some people may say "but Chinese officers are patriotic - they would never do such a thing!" To which an officer might reply, "it is patriotic of me to bring a big salary home to China, and to spend it in my home town!" Certainly, ship's officers from every other country in the world are patriotic too, but this has never stopped the most capable ones from serving on foreign ships, if wages and conditions are better on those ships. In reality, this means an inevitable increase in officer pay on Chinese ships, so that officers on Chinese ships will receive international pay levels.
This is not likely to be a serious handicap to Chinese shipping companies, since Chinese ships will be competing with foreign ships with similar officer salary costs.
So, to conclude, the outlook for Chinese ships officers is very positive indeed, provided always that high training standards are maintained.
摘自 国际海员之家网站
This is a document which those concerned with Chinese shipping should consider. Of course, the BIMCO-ISF study is concerned with all the ships in the world. While the figures in the report include China and Chinese ships, the main part of the study relates to the ships of other countries.
Some of the conclusions in the report, however, are relevant to the future of manning aboard Chinese ships.
This is the third edition of this report. It is published every five years. In very broad terms, the 1990 report predicted a shortage of ships officers and an oversupply of ratings. The 1995 report showed that the collapse of the shipowning industries of the former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries had released onto the international market for seafaring labour enough experienced officers to fill this gap. The oversupply of ratings had continued.
The 2000 update of the report shows that the shortage of officers is getting worse. The report estimates that the total number of seamen required by the world deep sea fleet (excluding coastal shipping) is 420,000 officers and 599,000 ratings. However, the report calculates that at present the supply of staff to the world deep sea fleet is 404,000 officers and 820,000 ratings.
Therefore, while there is an excess of 224,000 ratings, or + 27%, the shortage of officers today amounts to 16,000 officers, or - 4%. Within this total, there are some alarming trends. The report comments that the majority of Asian junior officers aboard international ships are unwilling to take senior posts, such as Master or Chief Engineer. Furthermore Asian officers tend to retire from the sea and take shore positions at quite a young age. The money invested in their training is therefore wasted.
Meanwhile, there is a worrying trend in relation to senior officers, holding the positions of Master and Chief Engineer, from the OECD countries More than 40% of such officers are over 50 years old, while 18% are older than 55, and are due to retire within the next five years.
Since the seafaring training system of Russia is no longer reliable, there will be no further supply of ships' officers from that source. Similarly, the supply of ship's officers from Yugoslavia is doubtful, while Poland is producing fewer seafarers in any case, as that country's economic situation is rapidly improving.
By 2010, according to the report, the world shipping industry will be 46,000 officers short of the required number. In calculating this figure, the study assumes that manning levels on board ships will not be reduced much below present levels, due to problems with fatigue. Furthermore, the report notes that the STCW Convention and the ISM Code will both have the effect of limiting the reduction of crew numbers and of reducing seafarer supply.
So, what are the prospects for the Chinese officer cadet, or junior officer, today?
If you are an officer cadet, or a serving junior officer, and you are reading this, you may reflect happily on your very sensible choice of career! Because, if you are reading this, then your English is good, which means that the possibility of serving on international ships is available to you, and you will have noticed the impending shortage, which means that salaries for capable ships' officers will be obeying the law of supply and demand - and increasing!
Since it takes, on average, ten years, from recruiting a cadet to that same cadet taking senior rank on board, if you are a cadet and you are reading this you will not be facing competition from excess trained officers which would push your wages down again. You certainly are not at all likely to be out of work!
In general, industry experts to whom I have spoken have been very favourably impressed by the quality of young Chinese ships' officers and cadets today. China is probably the only country which may not need to deal with a "manning problem" in the next ten to twenty years. We cannot be certain of this. It is possible that Chinese officers, like other Asian officers, (except Japanese) will wish to spend only a few years at sea before taking a shore position. In that case, there would be a problem.
And for Chinese shipping companies there is what might appear to be a problem - wages. If there is a world shortage of seafarers, particularly a shortage of capable young officers, then wages for these positions will increase throughout the world fleet. This would have the effect of encouraging Chinese officers to serve on foreign ships, at higher wages. In that case Chinese shipping companies must plan to improve their own service conditions for officers, including salaries, if they are not to lose good people to foreign companies.
Some people may say "but Chinese officers are patriotic - they would never do such a thing!" To which an officer might reply, "it is patriotic of me to bring a big salary home to China, and to spend it in my home town!" Certainly, ship's officers from every other country in the world are patriotic too, but this has never stopped the most capable ones from serving on foreign ships, if wages and conditions are better on those ships. In reality, this means an inevitable increase in officer pay on Chinese ships, so that officers on Chinese ships will receive international pay levels.
This is not likely to be a serious handicap to Chinese shipping companies, since Chinese ships will be competing with foreign ships with similar officer salary costs.
So, to conclude, the outlook for Chinese ships officers is very positive indeed, provided always that high training standards are maintained.
摘自 国际海员之家网站
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