全球航运咨询公司德鲁里(Drewry)发布的最新《海员年度回顾与预测》(manning Annual Review and Forecast)报告显示，海员供应短缺已达到创纪录高位，预计不会改善，从而导致海员成本上涨。

2023年的高级船员可用性缺口已经扩大到相当于全球总人数的9%左右，这比去年的5%的缺口明显上升，也是自17年前Drewry开始分析海员市场以来的最高水平。

根据在此期间可用的新海员供应的限制，预计2023-2028年将出现类似的赤字水平。

虽然这些赤字水平是基于船舶数量以及对船员水平的假设，而且很大程度上是理论上的，但它们清楚地表明，海员劳动力市场已经变得特别紧张，这对招聘和留用以及人员配备成本产生了重要影响。

尽管2020年离我们越来越远，但新冠肺炎疫情的影响仍然持续存在，因为它不仅对船员培训产生了重大影响，而且对海上工作的整体吸引力也产生了重大影响。

这主要是由于船员被困在船上的各种故事，往往是在恶劣的条件下。

▲Source: Drewry‘s Manning Annual Review and Forecast 2023/24

因此，幸福感的重要性已经成为留住船员的首要因素，超越工资率的趋势也日益强烈。

与家人良好的沟通渠道、舒适的船上设施和支持性的工作环境等因素正变得越来越重要。

新冠疫情最具挑战性的时期刚刚结束，俄乌战争的爆发就给海员供应带来了进一步的挑战，许多经验丰富的船员回国参军。

不幸的是，目前这场战争还没有结束的迹象，所以我们预计在一段时间内，来自俄罗斯和乌克兰的新海员数量将非常有限。

由于这些问题，船舶人员配备在未来几年将面临挑战，特别是在管理人员可用性方面，而全球深海船队的加速增长将使情况更加困难。

Drewry的人力资源研究主管瑞德•哈里斯(Rhett Harris)表示:“雇主正在寻找其他供应来源来填补空缺，工资也开始出现更大的波动。”

“虽然集装箱船和近海供应船等行业的工资水平已经上升，但我们预计其他船舶类型的工资成本也将加速上升。”

英文原文

Officer supply shortfall has reached a record high and is not expected to improve, leading to manning cost inflation, according to the latest Manning Annual Review and Forecast report published by global shipping consultancy Drewry.

The 2023 officer availability gap has widened to a deficit equating to about 9% of the global pool, which represents a marked rise from last year’s 5% shortfall and the highest level since Drewry first started analyzing the seafarer market 17 years ago. Similar deficit levels are forecast for 2023-2028 based on the limits of new seafarer supply becoming available in the period. While these deficit levels are based on vessel numbers together with assumptions on crewing levels and so largely theoretical, they clearly indicate that the seafarer labor market has become particularly tight, with important implications for recruitment and retention as well as manning costs.

Although 2020 is now more and more behind us, the effects of Covid-19 are still persistent, as it not only had a substantial impact on crew training but also on the overall appeal of working at sea. This was mainly due to the various stories of crews stuck on board vessels, too often in dire conditions.

As a result, the importance of well-being has come to the forefront of employee retention, and the trend of looking beyond wage rates is becoming stronger by the day. Things like good communication channels with families at home, comfortable facilities onboard, and a supportive work environment are gaining importance.

The most challenging period of the pandemic had hardly ended when the eruption of the Russia-Ukraine war created further challenges in seafarer supply, with many experienced crews returning home to join the military. Unfortunately, there is no end in sight to the war currently, so we expect the numbers of new seafarers from Russia and Ukraine to be very limited for a while.

While vessel manning will be challenging over the few next years, especially with regard to officer availability because of these issues, the accelerating growth of the global deep-sea vessel fleet will make the situation even more difficult.

“Employers are seeking alternative sources of supply to fill the gap, and wages have also begun to show more volatility,” said Drewry’s head of manning research Rhett Harris. “While sectors like containerships and offshore supply vessels have already seen increasing wage rates due to the strength of the sectors, we expect wage cost to accelerate for other vessel types as well.”

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